Tim,
I just hope that you and everyone else in the path of Irma is safe. I heard there's another hurricane (Jose) coming too..
Yeah, I have'nt been following its track, the last I heard it is going to go K>back out to sea hopefully..
Right now, that's what the models are predicting. But, each one (there
are at least 2 dozen of them), and they handle a weather situation
differently.
When Arkansas got hit by a major snowstorm on Christmas Day, 2012 (it
was the first time that Little Rock had seen snow on Christmas Day in 86
years (the last time was 1926)), the ECMWF (European model) was SPOT
ON!! The Global Forecast System (GFS, the U.S. model) was slightly off,
but it usually has a cold bias, anyway. By contrast, the NAM (another
North American model) MISSED it completely!!
Howver, with Arkansas winters, we normally don't get snow...we get ice
storms from freezing rain. Back in 2000, we had back to back ice storms
in December. Some parts of Arkansas, especially the rural areas, had no
power until February!!
The National Weather Service in Little Rock has an interesting read on
their website. While the heat index exceeded 100 in Little Rock several
times, the actual temperature never did. So, there's speculation that "a
cool summer means a cold winter". The article is at:
http://www.weather.gov/lzk/coolsummer17.htm
Personally, I'll see what the Wooly Worms have to say. Punxatawney
Phil (and possibly General Beauregard Lee in Atlanta) are in hibernation
until February. <G>
Admittedly, I like one good snow per winter, and I'm happy. Otherwise,
it's just a nasty mess. But, around here...if people see one snowflake,
one sleet pellet, one freezing raindrop, it's PANIC TIME!! The local TV meteorologist issues "A Grocery Store Warning", and there is a run on
stores for bread and milk (who wants milk sandwiches??), beer and toilet paper!! :P
There are several sites for viewing the models -- pivotalweather.com
and tropicaltidbits.com -- but to view the ECMWF, it costs a nominal
monthly fee at eurowx.com -- I like looking at the models for the
snowfall and ice (freezing rain) forecasts in the winter. Arkansas is
overdue for a major winter storm.
I told my elderly Mom (who's 91, and I do all the driving, shopping,
etc. for her), that "I'd watch the weather closely, and if I saw a
potential winter storm coming...she was to get me a list of what she
wanted, and I'd go to the store and stock up, before everyone else got
the idea that something was up!! A few years back, I was getting a few
last minute things at a local Kroger, and it started snowing outside
(big wet snowflakes). There was nearly a riot in the checkout lanes!!
Daryl
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